Raise Your Odds: Adapt statistics

Our #1 goal at Coaching Actuaries is to raise your odds. Specifically, to Raise Your Odds ™ to pass the actuarial exams. We feel so passionate about this goal that we trademarked the phrase. You are probably curious how well are we accomplishing our mission.

Previously, we reported results for the CBT exams taken during the 1st quarter of 2013. We have a video on our home page that documents the results. The summarized results from this time period:

Earned Level < 4: 39% passed (63/163)

4 <= Earned Level < 7: 80% passed (357/449)

Earned Level > 7: 91% passed (267/293)

The exams during this period include P/1 (2 exams), FM/2, MFE/3F, and C/4.

We get plenty of requests for updated results. Today, I would like to share those results. The results now cover the CBT exams from January 2013 through August 2013. Note that this does not contain the results from the non-CBT exams (MLC and 3L). Obviously, these non-CBT exams aren’t included because the results are not known when our surveys are sent.

A common request is to provide detail by earned level. This survey result provides detail by integer values of earned level. The only exception is for earned level between 0 and 2. The reason is that there were only 8 students in that range. Separating them into smaller categories is not meaningful.

Speaking of credible, the results are from 2,300 survey responses. Yes, it is exactly 2,300 results (not 2,301!). First, I want to thank all students who responded to the survey. We really appreciate you investing your time to provide us feedback. The results from the 2,300 Adapt surveyed users are as follows (click to enlarge):

Infographic

What conclusions can be made from these results? I’m not sure if anything can be concluded with 100% certainty from surveys. However, let me make these observations:

  1. We are maintaining a 90+% pass mark for earned levels 7 and higher (91.3%).
  2. Although not perfectly smooth, there is a positive correlation between higher earned levels and higher pass rates.
  3. Clearly the results of passing scores for earned levels 4 and higher are greater than the actual results released by the SOA.

Some of you may wonder, what are the results by exam? The results by exam were remarkably consistent. Although I did not perform a formal statistical analysis, there was not any significant difference by exam that couldn’t be attributed to sampling difference.

I will report that we just received results from our C/4 October 2013 results. The results have not been included in the chart above, but will be included in our next summary of results.

To be honest, the results were not normal. Only 79.3% of students with an earned level of 7 or higher passed. I share these results for two reasons.

First, I want to provide full disclosure since the results are not consistent with passing scores from previous surveys. In fact, I don’t recall seeing results from any exams that had less than 85%. Because it was unusual, I wanted to document.

Second, if you were one of the C/4 students who took the October exam, perhaps you may have some insight as to why the results deviated from our norm? We are confident in our Adapt technologies to produce excellent results. Maybe the C/4 exam is shifting in focus. Anyway, I thought it would be worth encouraging a discussion.

Thus, I welcome any questions, comments or thoughts you may have on these results, including any comments on the recently released C/4 exam. Of course, make sure everything that is shared is in compliant with the SOA/CAS exam rules. Thanks and happy Adapting!